When it comes to the rate path, the site publishes two separate readings. One is model scenario odds, derived by a rule-based macro model from inflation and employment data. The other is market pricing, taken from live prediction-market trading on Polymarket for the FOMC outcome. The two answer different questions: the model asks how conditions alone would justify pricing, while the market answers what traders are actually betting on.
Treating model odds as market consensus — or market pricing as model output — guarantees a misread. That is why this page lists them separately and reads them separately.
As of this snapshot, Polymarket pricing for the next FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) reads hike 81% / hold 18% / cut 0%. The federal funds target range upper bound currently stands at 3.75%. What those numbers say: market participants are putting real money behind a rate increase at this meeting, a hold is the secondary scenario, and a cut is essentially unpriced.
One caveat matters: this is the market-pricing gauge. It reflects trader consensus, not an objective model derivation from macro conditions — and the two can diverge.
The inputs to the model's scenario odds are the macro series. The latest readings: CPI up 3.4% year-over-year for 2026-08, PPI up 5.44%, core PCE up 3.38% year-over-year for 2026-Q2 — all three inflation curves sit at elevated levels — and nonfarm payrolls added +162k in August. For the model, inflation persistently above target combined with employment that has not yet visibly weakened is the textbook combination that raises the weight on hike scenarios.
These series span 13 periods (10 for employment) and form the basis of the model's rolling update, as well as the reference frame against which market pricing is cross-checked.
Bond and currency markets provide a third angle. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.92%, up 28bp over 20 trading days, so the long end is still rising. The US Dollar Index stands at 99.09. Brent crude is at 104.42 USD/barrel, up 17.3% over 30 days, and rising oil reinforces tightening expectations through the inflation-expectations channel.
All three readings point the same way as the 81% hike price, which suggests market pricing is not an isolated phenomenon but the convergence of the rates, FX and commodity threads.
COMEX gold reads 4390.0 USD/oz (2026-09-11 close), up 0.73% on the day; Shanghai gold AU closed the night session flat at 944.58 CNY/g. Gold closing higher in an environment dominated by hike expectations points to structural support underneath: IMF-reporting central banks net-bought 280 t over the trailing 12 months (through 2026-07), and US federal debt stands at 122.6% of GDP (2026-Q1).
Short-term rate-path pricing presses on valuation; the long-run fiscal and central-bank-buying logic provides the floor. That is the basic frame for understanding gold's current resilience.
The snapshot's top three driver factors: Treasury yield trend (−100), oil-to-CPI transmission (−86) and central-bank gold buying (+45). The first two are negative pressures and corroborate the 81% hike pricing; the third is positive support.
In practice: read the model scenario odds first to see what macro conditions support, then read Polymarket pricing to see how much the market has already priced in. The gap between them is itself information. If market pricing is more hawkish than the model, watch for an expectations reversal; if it is more dovish, the tightening trade may still have room. Methodology follows the snapshot; nothing here is investment advice.
| Reading | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC market pricing (next meeting 2026-09-17) | hike 81% / hold 18% / cut 0% | 2026-09-11 |
| Fed funds target range, upper bound | 3.75% | 2026-09-11 |
| CPI, year-over-year | 3.4% | 2026-08 |
| PPI, year-over-year | 5.44% | 2026-08 |
| Core PCE, year-over-year | 3.38% | 2026-Q2 |
| Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change | +162k | 2026-08 |
| US 10Y Treasury yield | 4.92% (+28bp over 20 days) | 2026-09-11 |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.09 | 2026-09-11 |
| Brent crude | 104.42 USD/barrel (+17.3% over 30 days) | 2026-09-11 |
| COMEX gold, latest close | 4390.0 USD/oz (+0.73%) | 2026-09-11 |
| Shanghai gold Au99.99, night session | 944.58 CNY/g (0.00%) | 2026-09-11 |
| Central-bank net buying, trailing 12 months | +280 t | to 2026-07 |
| Federal debt as a share of GDP | 122.6% | 2026-Q1 |
Model scenario odds come from a rule-based model built on macro series such as inflation and employment, and answer what conditions justify. Polymarket market pricing comes from traders putting real money down, and answers what the market is betting. In this snapshot market pricing reads hike 81% / hold 18% / cut 0%. Market pricing is not model output; the two can diverge, and the divergence is often where the information is.
Because market pricing can overreact to short-term sentiment or liquidity shocks. The model independently derives scenario weights from CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, PPI at 5.44%, core PCE at 3.38% and nonfarm payrolls at +162k. A large gap against the 81% price suggests the market may have overshot or undershot, which is a reason to re-examine a position's risk-reward.
Short term, hike pricing at 81% alongside the 10Y at 4.92% (+28bp over 20 days) and DXY at 99.09 is a headwind, matching the two negative driver readings — Treasury yield trend −100 and oil-to-CPI transmission −86. Yet gold still closed up 0.73% at 4390.0 USD/oz, because central banks net-bought 280 t over 12 months and federal debt stands at 122.6% of GDP. Short-term pressure, long-term support.
The next meeting is 2026-09-17 and the federal funds target range upper bound is 3.75%. Ahead of it, track the pace of change in Polymarket pricing (hike 81% / hold 18% / cut 0%) and updates to the model inputs — CPI, PPI, nonfarm payrolls. After the decision, watch whether market pricing and model odds converge again.
Brent at 104.42 USD/barrel, up 17.3% over 30 days, ranks second among the driver factors at −86. Higher oil pushes inflation readings up through the energy component, reinforcing tightening expectations — consistent with hike pricing at 81%. The oil passthrough is one of the better forward indicators for changes in rate-path pricing.
Source: Gold Data Reading · XAU Daily — https://xaudaily.com/ · All figures above are taken verbatim from the site's readings snapshot of 2026-09-11 and match the daily dashboard item by item. These are data facts, not investment advice.