Explainers

How to read the readings: what each gauge measures, where it comes from, and where it stops being useful · 23 topics · each one generated from the same data as the daily dashboard

ADP vs Nonfarm Payrolls: 36 Monthly Comparisons, Regression and Direction Agreement | Gold Data ReadingA month-by-month comparison of ADP private payrolls and US nonfarm payrolls: definition and source gaps, direction agreement, linear-regression fit, revision drift and the…
Central Bank Gold Purchases: Why IMF Data Lags by MonthsWhy do monthly central bank gold purchase figures lag by several months? This article breaks down the IMF-reported net purchase chain of +311 tonnes (
CPI vs Core PCE: Gold Price Inflation Readings ExplainedCPI YoY is 3.7% and core PCE YoY is 3.01% — a 0.69pp gap between the two inflation measures. Which one does gold pricing actually follow? This page br
Why Gold Can't Rally: Dollar Strength and 5.0% Treasury YieldsCOMEX gold trades at $4,390... wait, $4,033.2/oz, down 1.17% on the day; DXY at 101.929 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.0%. A strong dollar and hi
How Fed Rate Cuts Affect Gold Prices: Transmission Channels ExplainedHow do Fed rate cuts affect gold? Using the latest readings — COMEX gold at $4,033.2/oz, 10Y Treasury at 5.0%, and central bank net purchases of +311
Fed Rate Path: Model Scenarios vs. Market Pricing & GoldThe Fed's rate path has two sets of probabilities: model scenario probabilities and Polymarket market pricing. This article distinguishes the two, and
FOMC Holds Rates at 4.00%: Gold Falls as Markets Price a 72% Hike for DecemberThe FOMC stood pat, keeping the upper bound of the federal funds rate at 4.00%. Post-decision Polymarket pricing converged to 72.0% hike / 27.5% hold
September 2026 FOMC: the Hike Landed at 4.00% — Immediate Gold ReactionThe FOMC raised the federal funds target range upper bound from 3.75% to 4.00% on 2026-09-17, fully priced beforehand at 100%. COMEX gold fell 1.31% to 4334.67 USD/oz and S…
Gold Price Driver Factor Bars: Reading the -100 to +100 ScoresDriver factor bars score each factor's short-term direction and strength on gold from -100 to +100: positive scores are bullish, negative bearish. Usi
70-Tonne Gold ETF Inflow vs Falling COMEX Price: Reading the DivergenceReports of a 70-tonne gold ETF inflow accelerated (0 to 2 articles) while COMEX gold closed at $4,033.2/oz, down 1.17% on the day. This page explains
Record Gold ETF Inflows vs Falling Prices: Why Gold DroppedSeptember gold ETF holdings hit a record with roughly $10 billion of inflows, yet gold prices still fell: COMEX gold closed at $4,033.2/oz, down 1.17%
Gold Falls as Central Banks Buy: Rates vs. Buying LogicInvestors and central banks are both buying, yet gold prices fall: COMEX gold closed at $4,033.2/oz while central banks added a net 311 tonnes over th
Gold Price Forecast 2026: Banks Revise Targets as COMEX Hits $4,033.2COMEX gold trades at $4,033.2/oz as major banks revise their 2026 gold price forecasts, prompting investors to reassess the rally. This page reviews t
Gold Price Slides to Two-Month Low: COMEX at $4,033.2/ozGold fell to a two-month low: COMEX gold closed at $4,033.2/oz, down 1.17% on the day; SHFE AU closed the night session at 860.7 yuan/g, down 1.02%. A
Live Gold Prices: COMEX vs SHFE and What Drives GoldCOMEX gold at $3,933.1/oz and SHFE AU at 845.2 yuan/g — where to watch live gold prices, how to read intraday moves, plus key readings like the 10Y Tr
Gold Scrap Recycling Prices: Anchor, Discounts & Macro Backdrop (Oct 30, 2026)Using COMEX 3933.1 USD/oz and SHFE AU 845.2 CNY/g as benchmarks, we break down the sources of buyback discounts and how to convert live gold prices, h
Gold Price Today: COMEX $4,033.2/oz, Key Drivers & DataCOMEX gold closed at $3,933.1/oz (Nov 3, -0.59% on the day), while SHFE AU settled at 845.2 yuan/gram in the night session. This page breaks down toda
Gold Reserves Logic as 10Y Yields Hit 5.0% | COMEX at $4,033.210Y Treasury yields have risen to 5.0% and COMEX gold has pulled back to $4,033.2/oz. Central banks say gold retains its key reserve role even amid th
COMEX Gold to CNY/gram Conversion & SHFE Premium GuideCOMEX gold at $3,933.1/oz and SHFE AU at 845.2 yuan/gram use different units, currencies and sessions. This page explains how to align them using the
NFP Revision Drift and Gold Pricing | xaudaily.comInitial nonfarm payrolls prints are routinely revised, and the drift from initial to current value directly shapes how gold reacts to data. Using COME
PPI 6.34% vs Gold: What It Means for Gold PricesSeptember 2026 PPI rose 6.34% YoY vs CPI at 3.7%, with upstream price gains clearly outpacing end consumption—cost pass-through and inflation expectat
What Is the Quasi Real Rate? 10Y Treasury Yield Minus CPI YoY, and Its LimitsHow this site's simplified quasi real rate is calculated — the 10-year Treasury yield minus CPI year-over-year — how to read it as a proxy for gold's opportunity cost, and…
Why Rising Treasury Yields Are Bullish for Gold: Data ReviewWith the 10Y Treasury yield at 5.0% and COMEX gold at $4,033.2/oz, this page explains why rising yields are seen as gold-positive: real-rate and debt-