The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points on 2026-09-17, lifting the federal funds target range upper bound from 3.75% to 4.00%. Market pricing had already fully converged ahead of the decision: Polymarket showed hike 100.0% / hold 0.0% / cut 0.0%.
The hike matched expectations, and that convergence tells you the market had already formed a firm view of the policy path. Gold's reaction after the decision was comparatively limited, which is what you would expect when the hike was pre-priced. A fuller post-mortem will be added to this page.
After the decision was published, COMEX gold fell 1.31% to 4334.67 USD/oz, a clear retreat from the pre-decision close of 4392.00 USD/oz. Intraday movement shows gold had already been reacting before the announcement, with that tick showing a +0.77% gain on the day.
Domestically, Shanghai gold Au99.99 fell 0.42% to 930.28 CNY/g from a pre-decision close of 944.10 CNY/g, also under pressure. The decline reflects the market's actual response to the hike, but the magnitude was relatively modest — evidence that the policy expectation had already been absorbed. A fuller post-mortem will be added to this page.
After the decision the market's focus shifts to how the real-rate path affects gold. The 10-year Treasury yield reads 4.98%, up 27bp over 20 days, and rising real rates press on gold. Watch how the inflation data (CPI 3.4% year-over-year, core PCE 3.38%) and the labour market (nonfarm payrolls +162k) develop, since those decide the Fed's direction.
Central-bank buying (+280 t over the trailing 12 months) and US federal debt at 122.6% of GDP remain the long-run supports. A fuller post-mortem will be added to this page.
| Reading | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target range, upper bound | 4.00% (raised from 3.75%, +25bp) | 2026-09-17 decision |
| FOMC market pricing before the decision | hike 100.0% / hold 0.0% / cut 0.0% | 2026-09-16 |
| COMEX gold, after the decision | 4334.67 USD/oz (−1.31%) | 2026-09-17 |
| COMEX gold, pre-decision close | 4392.00 USD/oz | 2026-09-16 |
| Shanghai gold Au99.99, after the decision | 930.28 CNY/g (−0.42%) | 2026-09-17 |
| Shanghai gold Au99.99, pre-decision close | 944.10 CNY/g | 2026-09-16 |
| US 10Y Treasury yield | 4.98% (+27bp over 20 days) | 2026-09-16 |
| CPI, year-over-year | 3.4% | 2026-08 |
| Core PCE, year-over-year | 3.38% | 2026-Q2 |
| Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change | +162k | 2026-08 |
| Central-bank net buying, trailing 12 months | +280 t | to 2026-07 |
| Federal debt as a share of GDP | 122.6% | 2026-Q1 |
Fully. Market pricing had already converged before the decision: Polymarket showed hike 100.0% / hold 0.0% / cut 0.0%. The muted gold reaction corroborates that the hike was fully anticipated.
COMEX gold fell 1.31% to 4334.67 USD/oz, mainly because a hike raises real rates and therefore the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield. The decline was modest in size, indicating the market had already absorbed the hike and reacted rationally.
Watch the real-rate path: the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield, CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, core PCE at 3.38% and nonfarm payrolls at +162k. Those decide the Fed's next move and therefore gold.
Central-bank buying and the fiscal position remain the structural supports: IMF-reporting central banks net-bought +280 t over the trailing 12 months, and US federal debt stands at 122.6% of GDP. Geopolitical risk and inflation expectations can also support gold over longer horizons.
Source: Gold Data Reading · XAU Daily — https://xaudaily.com/ · All figures above are taken verbatim from the site's readings snapshot of 2026-09-16 and match the daily dashboard item by item. These are data facts, not investment advice.