This FOMC meeting ended with rates on hold, with the upper bound of the federal funds target range kept at 4.00%, unchanged from the pre-decision level. Market pricing had already converged ahead of the meeting: Polymarket readings as of 2026-10-30 13:05 showed a 73.4% chance of a hike, 26.5% hold, and 0.9% cut — meaning most participants bet on tightening, yet the outcome landed on the 26.5% 'hold' side. The next meeting is scheduled for 2026-12-10, where current market pricing stands at 76% hike / 24% hold / 1% cut. This is a flash report issued right after the decision, recording only verifiable readings; an in-depth review will update this page shortly.
After the decision, COMEX gold spot (tick at 2026-10-30 12:05:03) printed $3,999.42/oz, a -2.00% move from the pre-decision close of $4,081.10, with that tick down -0.85% intraday. For reference benchmarks: COMEX closed at $4,033.2/oz on 2026-10-29 (daily change -1.17%); SHFE AU night-session closed at 860.7 yuan/gram (daily change -1.02%); SGE Au99.99 spot (2026-10-30 11:30:00) at 859.38 yuan/gram (intraday -1.17%). These pre-10-28-basis readings serve only as reference benchmarks and do not reflect post-decision price action. An in-depth review will update this page shortly.
With the hold delivered, the core focus is the real rate path. Current readings: the 10Y Treasury yield at 5.0% (20-day -32bp), CPI YoY 3.7%, PPI YoY 6.34%, and core PCE YoY 3.12% (all 2026-09), with nonfarm payrolls +29k (2026-09). With inflation still above target, holding rates at 4.00% means the real-rate environment's headwind for gold remains intact. Other background readings: DXY at 101.929 (2026-10-30), Brent at $111.54 (30-day +6.4%), central bank net gold purchases of +311 tonnes over the past 12 months (through 2026-08), and US debt/GDP at 121.2% (2026-Q2). The top three drivers are Treasury yield trends +68, central bank buying +45, and the US debt burden +37. An in-depth review will update this page shortly.
Rates were held, with the upper bound of the federal funds target range kept at 4.00%, unchanged from before the decision. Pre-meeting Polymarket pricing (as of 2026-10-30 13:05) showed a 73.4% chance of a hike, 26.5% hold, and 0.9% cut, with the outcome landing on the 'hold' side. The next meeting is on 2026-12-10.
COMEX spot (2026-10-30 12:05:03) printed $3,999.42/oz, a -2.00% move from the pre-decision close of $4,081.10, with that tick down -0.85% intraday. Domestically, SGE Au99.99 spot stood at 859.38 yuan/gram (intraday -1.17%), while SHFE AU night-session closed at 860.7 yuan/gram (daily change -1.02%).
The key is the real rate path: the 10Y Treasury yield is currently 5.0% (20-day -32bp), while CPI YoY is 3.7% and core PCE YoY is 3.12% (2026-09) — inflation remains above target. Holding rates at 4.00% means the real-rate headwind for gold persists, and upcoming inflation and jobs data will shape expectations for the December meeting.
The readings show central bank net gold purchases of +311 tonnes over the past 12 months (through 2026-08) and US debt/GDP at 121.2% (2026-Q2). The top three drivers are Treasury yield trends +68, central bank buying +45, and the US debt burden +37. For more market data, return to the xaudaily.com homepage.