Gold Rises Ahead of FOMC Decision
COMEX gold closed at 4,073.1 USD/oz, up 1.05% on the day; SHFE AU night session closed at 872.74 CNY/g, also up 1.05%. With the October 29 FOMC approaching, markets price a 95% probability of no change and 5% for a hike. The 10Y Treasury yield stands at 5.0% (down 24bp over 20 days) and DXY at 102.356, easing rate and dollar pressure. Central bank net purchases of +311 tonnes over the past 12 months remain a floor for gold.
Rule-based score −100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish) · sorted by current impact strength · direction logic: falling inflation argues for cuts (bullish); rising yields or a firmer dollar (bearish)
Scores come from a fixed rule model applied to the data collected each day (not a black box): colour = direction, bar length = current impact strength; neutral = no significant effect in this window.
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BEA NIPA 1.1.1 revised · as of —
What moves gold is the direction and slope of yields, not the single-day level · quasi-real yield (10Y − CPI YoY) = the opportunity cost of holding gold
Oil reaches inflation through the energy component (≈6.5% of the CPI basket); inflation then reaches gold through policy expectations · each link is coloured by its current direction
Official gold reserves (tonnes · via Wikipedia, sourced from the World Gold Council / IMF) · share of reserves · trend column base period — (backfilled from Wikipedia page history, accumulating month by month since)
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Official readings take precedence; editorial calls are labelled separately. This table mixes two lenses: “direction” (change vs the prior print — CPI monthly, core PCE monthly, payroll trend) and “level” (absolute position — the inflation constraint). The same data can read opposite ways under the two: CPI falling month over month counts bullish, while CPI still above the 2% target counts bearish. Two different questions, not a data conflict.
First print vs latest revision · two further revisions follow each monthly first print · used to test the "first print revised down" risk
Verification points over the next six months
Server-rendered (readable without JavaScript) · updated twice daily at 06:30 / 22:40 Tokyo time · plain-text brief · today's archive page · all archives · llms.txt · 中文版
Every figure above carries its own source and cut-off date inline; all probabilities are model estimates and nothing here is investment advice.
Answered from this page's live data · same methodology as the footer notes
Oil and gold don't always move together. Higher oil lifts inflation expectations (bullish for gold), but it also pushes Treasury yields higher and often firms the dollar — and higher real yields plus a stronger dollar raise gold's opportunity cost. The two forces point in opposite directions, so the net effect depends on which one is stronger. We score them as two separate drivers ("inflation direction" and "oil pass-through"): compare the two readings on the driver-factor module above — the side with the larger absolute value usually sets the short-term direction.
Both are shown live in the policy-and-events module above — the next meeting date and the federal funds rate ceiling, updated automatically after each decision rather than hard-coded in the text. Ahead of a meeting the market typically focuses on the latest payrolls and CPI print; we keep historical series for both, readable period by period in each chart's data table.
The reading does not depend on the price level: colour gives direction (bullish/bearish) and bar length gives current impact strength, both computed by fixed rules from the day's collected data — not a black box. To understand a given session, read the driver ranking together with that day's event calendar rather than the price alone. Each day's ranking is frozen in our archive pages, so you can look back and compare.
The meeting matters mainly through expectations. Ahead of it the market re-prices the policy path, and the wait-and-see mood tends to damp volatility; afterwards what matters is the gap between the actual outcome and what was already priced. We label model scenario probabilities and Polymarket market pricing separately — the former is a rules-based estimate from our own data, the latter is where real money sits. Read side by side, they show where the two agree and where they diverge.
Real yields are gold's opportunity cost, and the 10-year nominal yield is their main input. Direction and slope matter more than the single-day level: a sustained rise in yields typically weighs on a non-yielding asset, while a peak-and-fade is relatively supportive. We use a simplified gauge ("quasi real yield" = 10Y yield − CPI YoY) and state its limits in the footer — the two legs are not perfectly time-aligned, since the numerator is live market data and the denominator is a lagged official release.
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As of the 2026-09-14 close, COMEX gold futures (GC) settled at 4315.4 USD/oz, down 1.70% on the day; Shanghai gold (AU) closed at 930.9 CNY/g on 2026-09-15, down 1.65%. Macro: US CPI +3.4% YoY (Aug 2026), PPI +5.44%, core PCE +3.38% (Q2), nonfarm payrolls +162k, 10Y Treasury 4.98%, DXY 99.073. Data is updated twice daily with sources noted on-site.
As of the 2026-09-14 close, COMEX GC stood at 4315.4 USD/oz (-1.70% on the day) and SHFE AU at 930.9 CNY/g (-1.65%). Our driver model attributes the weakness mainly to the rising 10Y Treasury yield (4.98%) and oil pass-through (Brent +20.7% over 30 days), with markets pricing an 82% chance of a hike at the 2026-09-17 FOMC. Central-bank net purchases of +280 tonnes over the past 12 months (through 2026-07) remain a medium-term support.
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