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Gold Price Technical Analysis · 2026-11-04

As of 2026-11-04 · Yahoo Finance GC=F 20-year daily (OHLCV, close basis)

4036.70

Close (+2.44%)

44.0

RSI(14) · 24% percentile

2.08%

ATR(14) / Close

-27.7%

From 2026 intraday high

Downtrend: price below all moving averages with negative momentum

3.1 Trend and momentum

Indicator	Value	Reading
Close	4036.70 (+2.44%)	vs MAs: bearish stack
MA5 / MA10 / MA20	3975.4 / 4011.0 / 4088.1	MA20 20d slope -4.70%
MA50 / MA100 / MA200	4252.3 / 4237.8 / 4509.1	MA50 slope -2.74%; MA200 slope -0.91%
MACD(12,26,9)	-74.2 / -70.9 / -3.2	below zero line, histogram contracting
ADX(14) / +DI / -DI	32.1 / 13.5 / 26.3	ADX 32.1, -DI above +DI, trend strength strong
RSI(14)	44.0	neutral zone
Bollinger(20,2)	3906.9 / 4088.1 / 4269.4	close above lower band
ATR(14)	83.9 (2.08%)	day range 111.1 (2.75%)
Volume / 20d avg	0.53x	without volume confirmation
52w close high / low	5318.4 / 3898.9	-24.1% from high
From 2026 intraday high	-27.7% (high 5586.2)	intraday basis; close basis -24.1% from 52w high

3.2 Key support and resistance

Support

#	Level	Distance	Basis
S1	3928.2	-2.7%	Day low
S2	3898.9	-3.4%	52-week low
S3	3800.0	-5.9%	Round number
S4	3700.0	-8.3%	Round number

Resistance

#	Level	Distance	Basis
R1	4088.1	+1.3%	MA20
R2	4171.4	+3.3%	Recent swing high 07-22
R3	4215.5	+4.4%	Recent swing high 07-06
R4	4242.3	+5.1%	Recent swing high 10-12
R5	4429.0	+9.7%	Fib 38.2%
R6	4509.1	+11.7%	MA200

Levels are computed from the day's range, 52-week range, recent swing highs/lows, moving averages, Bollinger bands, round numbers and Fibonacci retracements.

3.3 Historical odds after oversold

Condition	Events	20d avg	Hit rate	60d avg	Hit rate
RSI(14) < 30	50	2.16%	70%	3.17%	76%
RSI < 30 and 252d drawdown < -20%	10	4.42%	80%	5.11%	80%
Close at 252-day low	32	1.85%	66%	7.05%	88%

De-duplicated by contiguous episode, 2006-2026 daily bars. Episodes cluster around crisis/bottom periods; historical frequency, not a forecast.

3.4 Scenarios (not trading advice)

Scenario A: downtrend continues
If price cannot reclaim 4088.1-4171.4 and breaks below 3928.2, the next levels are 3898.9, then 3800.0; deeper targets 3600/3500. Confirmation: MACD histogram keeps expanding and MA20 keeps falling.

Scenario B: oversold bounce
If price reclaims 4088.1 (lower band / round number) and clears 4171.4, first target 4215.5, second 4242.3; only above 4218.9 (Fib 23.6% / recent swing high) does the short-term downtrend structure repair.

Scenario C: medium-term repair
Above 4252.3 (MA50) and a break of 4429.0 (Fib 38.2%) would be needed for a medium-term turn; above 4509.1 (MA200) would signal a larger reversal. With price 10%+ below these levels, fundamentals or policy would need to cooperate.

Event risk
2026-11-06 (est.) October payrolls release; 2026-11-10 (est.) October CPI release; 2026-11-30 (projected) 2026-Q3 GDP final · October PCE

Objective technical readings and scenarios; not trading advice. Leveraged futures/options require separate margin, expiry, implied-volatility and max-loss analysis.

Data basis: daily close, Yahoo Finance GC=F continuous contract; roll gaps exist and volume is less reliable than exchange data.